Despite a broadening and deepening of the membership and activities of the ATS, some critics have argued that it has been slow to respond to emerging issues, it requires a major overhaul, and it is under threat. As we settle into 2021, PGI’s Geopolitical Intelligence team have put together a list of some of the key risks for the coming year. (This is the last report of 2020; the next report will be published on January 11, 2021.) Shia Crescendo. From ongoing COVID-19 challenges to election-related unrest across South America, these are the areas that our Analysts have identified as potentially having significant impact on the economy and business operations. The fifty-four current states include new powers China and India, with their own geopolitical interests, and accessions in the last decade from Malaysia, Pakistan, Mongolia, Iceland, and Kazakhstan. One of the most influential factors dominating geopolitics in the Middle East is the cold war between Israel and Iran. A petroleum products distribution terminal in Jizan, Saudi Arabia, was attacked late on Thursday local time, the Kingdom said, blaming the Iran … The International Labour Organization (ILO) estimates that 590 million full-time jobs were lost during the last half of 2020. Race is also a geopolitical issue. Using structural VAR model and U.S. monthly data from January 1999 to August 2020, we find that geopolitical risk has a negative and significant impact on tourism service exports. But whatever the reasons, the world today is more complicated and more dangerous than the world of just a year ago, and in many cases … The world would need to replicate the emissions reductions seen in 2020 during the next decade to curb global warming to 1.5 degrees by the end of the century. By Susan Mustapich, Village Soup/Camden Herald| Feb 23, 2021. The year 2021 may well flourish into a new summer of love, a creative existential time – carpe diem! Whilst uncertainty is the only certainty, eight points are likely to be key in the year ahead: With the deployment of vaccines and public support, high-income countries will be on the path to recovery from the second half of 2021. Many types of valuable data are easily obtained, transported and used to influence large groups of the population. Issues like climate change, digital disruption, and migration will act as threat multipliers in 2020, but a number of country specific threats will complicate the global chessboard as well. When I ask why the poor have no food, they call me a communist.” — Dom Hélder Câmara. CAMDEN — During a week in which cold weather led to a disaster in the southern states, hundreds connected through the Camden Conference with experts on the arctic region and climate change. Five primary issues are likely to motivate protestors in 2021: pandemic restrictions, inequality, social justice, climate change and governance issues. February 3, 2021. Was Trumps Family-Separation Policy Torture? Bookmark or share this with others using some popular social bookmarking web sites: Add the following HTML code to your page: The World in 2021, Inter Press Service, Tuesday, December 22, 2020 (posted by Global Issues), “When I give food to the poor, they call me a saint. At present, there are fifty-four parties: twenty-nine consultative and twenty-five non-consultative. Increased tourism, shipping, fishing, and bioprospecting in the Southern Ocean have also resulted in significant governance challenges. The Antarctic Treaty Consultative (ATCPs) have instead maintained an internal focus and a modest ambition of reducing greenhouse gas emissions from Antarctic research operations. It appears that concerns over potential limits on future access to marine resources is a key factor in the position of these two states. For instance, until the COVID 19 events of the last year, Antarctic tourism was expanding rapidly, with nearly, seventy-five thousand people visiting the continent over the 2019-2020 season. N2 - In this paper, we examine the impact of geopolitical risk on the demand for tourism service export. governance challenges in Antarctica are increasing. ... Control Risks 2021 Geopolitical Calendar. Stock markets will remain volatile but likely buoyant, de-linked from the real economy. The Antarctic Treaty and its associated instruments and institutions, known as the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS), have survived internal debate and external challenges in the past. world's current focus on the coronavirus, other pressing issues of mankind have not gone away, and the need for the Conference's mission are just as important as ever, according to Camden Conference. The coronavirus crisis could be turned into an opportunity to make the world a better, fairer place for all in 2021. However, so far large corporations have benefited most from the trillions of dollars of COVID19 financial relief and assistance programs, contributing to growing inequalities. COVID-19: New Waves Emerge in Europe and North America. Current issue About this journal. Key trends include regional economic downturns in most key markets apart from China, as the full impact of Covid’s cost hits, heightened use of key global summits to re-establish US influence, possibly leading to increased trade and global health policy tensions. As a result, only global and regional institutions and agreements can ensure equity for all. World Heritage Convention), species and biodiversity protection (e.g. Governments choosing austerity in 2021 should expect protests and social unrest, given the negative social impacts. The Top Geopolitical Risks of 2021 Published on January 12, 2021 Political and economic stability will continue to be tested in 2021 as governments come under increasing pressure from the disruptive power of technology, terrorism, climate change, and other risks, all layered upon persistent upheaval from the COVID-19 pandemic. Studies suggest that 47 percent of US companies will let employees work from home full-time after the pandemic. The more affected sectors – tourism, travel, hospitality, entertainment and labor intensive activities – will take longer to recover. It will also be important to ensure that any new international rules operating in the Antarctic Treaty area, such as those on biodiversity protection being negotiated under the Law of the Sea, do not undermine the ATS’s competence in governing this important region of our planet. 21-01-2021. Redressing world disorder. One way forward may be a considered discussion of Antarctic Treaty states’ interests, so as to ensure the continued alignment of the states’ interests and commitment in maintaining Antarctica as a “, natural reserve devoted to peace and science. The UN will continue to struggle given low financing. Early vaccine euphoria is fading as policymakers grapple with resurgent COVID-19 outbreaks in Europe … and approach the thirtieth anniversary of conclusion of the 1991 Protocol on Environmental Protection. US President-elect Biden will renew multilateralism, the Paris treaty and … Organizers for the annual event, which provides expert persectives on major global issues, proved prophetic in chosing climate … 2021 will be an uneven year. The unforeseen costs of the pandemic have caused unprecedented levels of debt and fiscal deficits, and governments may resort to austerity cuts and reforms to public services, instead of looking at alternatives to increase budgets such as wealth taxation, fighting tax evasion and illicit financial flows. On the other hand, essential workers such as health workers, cleaning staff, delivery drivers or retail employees, will have more bargaining power in 2021, can press harder for better working conditions. Poverty and inequalities will lead to more protests in 2021. However, rising bankruptcies means that banking risks will increase significantly in 2021. As is our custom, in mid-December, we publish our geopolitical outlook for the upcoming year. For instance, the consensus decision-making practice may be used by some states as a way of blocking decisions that have the support of most states (say on forming new marine protected areas), rather than a means of strengthening the ATS by reaching a mutually agreeable position on issues that require attention. 37th and O Streets NW Washington, D.C. 20057. The other is a more democratic and socially progressive route, where public policies deliver to citizens, including equitable job-creating economic policies with social protection, financed by progressive taxation, the elimination of tax evasion and illicit financial flows. It is an issue of community and the common good. Data is not just an issue of individual vs. big business vs. country sovereignty. Rosemary Rayfuse, “Climate Change and Antarctic Fisheries: Ecosystem Management in CCAMLR”. geopolitics The Vaccine Race Has Become A High-Stakes Geopolitical Gamble Rich countries are spending billions to secure vaccine doses for their citizens — but not everyone can afford to play the global betting game. When Jean-Claude Juncker took charge of the European Commission in 2014, his “Berlaymont Rasputin” Martin Selmayr quickly introduced a new buzzword into the Brussels lexicon: a “political Commission.”. Y1 - 2021. The warming global climate is a key driver of biophysical change and political tension within the Antarctic Treaty area. The Middle East and North Africa will see continued, if not escalating instability. ANY PINNERS WHO ARE INTERESTED IN BECOMING A TEAM PINNER, PLEASE LET … There is still a great deal of uncertainty around the fall-out from Brexit, American politics remain fractious, and global leadership is in retreat as heads of state from North America to Asia are mired in domestic crises. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues that we believe will dominate the international landscape for 2021. The Antarctic Treaty was essentially a peace treaty that aimed to ease international political tensions over the ownership and strategic use of the Antarctic. Nature Editors, ‘Reform the Antarctic Treaty’, Reversing Course on Western Sahara Serves US National Interests, Marooned Democracy: Climate Change Demands Management, Not Solutionism, All I Need Is a Shot in the Arm: Global Cooperation and the COVID-19 Vaccine. Nengye Liu, ‘What are China’s intentions in Antarctica?’, , June 14 2019, available at: https://thediplomat.com/2019/06/what-are-chinas-intentions-in-antarctica/. Geopolitical Report By Bill O’Grady March 15, 2021 The Geopolitics of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC): Part I There has been a surge in interest in digital currencies among the world’s central banks. 11. With industry and services stagnant, investments went to the under-regulated financial sector, where greater profits were to be made from speculation. , 45, 2018: 53-81, see particularly 73-81. GEOPoliticalMatters.com is positioned as Europe´s Leading Geopolitical News Network. With forty percent of the world population (3.3 billion people) living below the international poverty line of 5.5 dollars per day, the World Bank estimates that 150 million additional people will fall into extreme poverty by 2021. IHRB’s annual forecast for the critical business and human rights issues that need urgent attention in 2021 is as stark as it has ever been. At the same time, there are a number of sectoral-focused regimes addressing these issues from outside the Antarctic Treaty System, including marine pollution (e.g. Continuing conflict … Antarctica and its Southern Ocean face the direct effects of global climate change, with potential impacts on sea-ice and marine ecosystems, as well as depleting ice sheets and land areas. China is America's strongest competitor, a state capitalist, authoritarian, and techno-surveillance regime that is … Ethiopia: Amidst hostilities in Tigray, humanitarian situation remains ‘dire’, ‘Plausible’ link between AstraZeneca vaccine and rare blood clots, WHO committee says, Indonesias Climate Villages Where Communities Work Together to Mitigate Climate Change, UNRWA chief reports on despair and hope among Palestinians, as US announces $150 million in aid, Youth Forum: UN chief calls for ‘tangible improvements’ in the face of injustice, poor governance, Libya violated rights of ‘targeted’ woman activist, says anti-discrimination committee, Hate speech and violence still rising against Roma despite recognition gains, says rights expert, A Post-COVID-19 Recovery will not be Possible if Water, Sanitation & Hygiene are not High on the Agenda, Clashes in Myanmar displace thousands, UN humanitarian office reports. One of the key lessons that should be borne in mind in 2021 is that geopolitics matters – especially to the tech industry. On international human rights day, December 10th 2020, our Top 10 Business & Human Rights Issues for 2021 reflects a tumultuous year of pandemic-driven impacts on nearly every facet of life – from health to the economy, from the workplace to global trade. Malaysia, a staunch critic of the Antarctic Treaty System between 1982 and 2004. , acceded to the Antarctic Treaty in 2011. UN Convention on the Law of the Sea), natural and cultural heritage (e.g. Protests are likely to pose a risk of disruptions to business operations. While public health expenditure will continue to rise, many are concerned about the threat of new austerity cuts. Jeffrey McGee & Marcus Haward, “Antarctic governance in a climate changed world”, Australian Journal of Maritime & Ocean Affairs. The program, “The Geopolitics of the Arctic” will be presented on Saturday 20 February 2021 … Share Facebook Twitter Email. China was the only country that experienced significant economic growth in 2020 and that trend will accelerate in 2021. International trade will rebound, but it will be a more “deglobalized” world, with diminished global supply chains and more local components. Race is also a geopolitical issue April 5, 2021 WC News White privilege, institutional racism, unconscious bias, identity politics — these terms have become the currency of political debate in the US and the UK. Mar 21, 2021 - Geopolitical Current Affairs Is A Pinterest Group Board Covering A Spectrum of Global Political Issues Such As World Conflicts, Women & Children Caught In Global Conflicts, Arms Trade, Terrorism , International Security Overrall And How These Issues Have A Long-Lasting Affect On People's Everyday Lives. The pandemic has contaminated 75 million people and killed 1.7 million. The debate on the possible ways out of the current crisis will continue throughout the year. On an ongoing basis Christian Takushi will offer an independent analysis of recent events in the global geopolitical-macroeconomic-financial landscape and share his outlook.During the Q&A he will answer questions from both economic-political and biblical … However, just as parties worked to maintain consensus in the wake of internal differences and external challenges in the 1980s, the Antarctic Treaty states must ensure that current challenges do not lead to deeper fractures. The Antarctic Treaty adopted 1 December 1959, entered into force 23 June 1961, 402 UNTS 71. Between 1981 and 1990, a period when the ATS was under severe strain, thirteen parties gained consultative party (i.e. Follow @IPSNewsUNBureauFollow IPS New UN Bureau on Instagram, © Inter Press Service (2020) — All Rights ReservedOriginal source: Inter Press Service. It was in many ways a power grab, an effort to make the EU executive more powerful in relation to the European Council of … The rest of the world: Proliferation of new hotbeds of tension and intensification of current quagmires There are other issues to watch in 2021 with the U.S., China, and Russia busy dealing with each other to gain world-leader status. Considerable scientific effort has been directed at improving scientific understanding of the importance of the region in the global climate system. at Georgetown University, a colleague, friend, and frequent visitor to University of Tasmania. Environmental Issues March 10, 2021 Congressional Research Service https://crsreports.congress.gov R46708 . While a few have benefited from the pandemic such as online shops, remote tools/software, pharmaceuticals and medical services – the majority have not. Geopolitics and International Boundaries (1996 - 1997) Browse the list of issues and latest articles from Geopolitics. The pandemic has accelerated technological change at the workplace. Situation Reports - March 31, 2021. But race is not just a domestic issue. Despite its members’ experiences in such issues through the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources, the ATS has not yet formally engaged in these debates. Isabel Ortiz, Director of the Global Social Justice Program at the Initiative for Policy Dialogue at Columbia University, was Director of the International Labor Organization and UNICEF, and a senior official at the United Nations and the Asian Development Bank. This is an unprecedented crisis that still could have new turns, and governments are learning by doing. There also remains an ongoing debate over the longevity of the current mining prohibition under the 1991 Protocol on Environmental Protection, with some suggesting that it may come under threat at a possible review conference in 2048. . Mar 26, 2021 at 09:17 | Tsvetana Paraskova. After two years of negotiations, the Antarctic Treaty was signed on December 1, 1959, by twelve states and entered into force on June 23, 1961. Emerging markets outside of Northeast Asia came into 2020 in a fragile position. NEW YORK, Dec 22 (IPS) - The year 2020 is ending with the world caught up in an unprecedented human and economic crisis. The Antarctic Treaty has successfully achieved its goal for Antarctica to be “used exclusively for peaceful purposes and not become the scene or object of international discord”. Furthermore, debates over resource use and access have increased geopolitical tensions between Antarctica Treaty states. As the Antarctic Treaty System approaches its seventh decade, it faces challenges from the impacts of global climate change, calls for increasing economic use of the region, more diverse membership, and geopolitical tensions from a shifting international order. The current negotiations for an agreement under the United Nations Law of the Sea Convention to conserve marine biodiversity in areas beyond national jurisdiction is another potential pressure point for Antarctic governance. The biggest impact that technology will have on geopolitics for 2021 (and beyond) will not primarily come from the technology itself, but rather from the system that surrounds it. One is the restoration of neoliberal policies, austerity and minimal public services eroding welfare, with limited taxation to the wealthy, that will lead to more inequality and social unrest. The membership of the Antarctic Treaty has also significantly expanded from its original twelve states, which may lead to new members questioning key governance norms. Numerous social protection measures have been implemented, but these are insufficient and poverty is increasing in all countries. Overall, there are two options. Now the question is: can the Antarctic Treaty System continue to adapt to new challenges and manage future pressures, including increased competition for marine resources in the Southern Ocean? As we pass the sixtieth anniversary of the Antarctic Treaty. decision making) status and eleven new parties acceded to the treaty. Christian Turner: Junior Fellow, Centre for Britain and Europe. .” As discussed above, they must also be attentive to the practice of consensus decision making to ensure that single members are not given a veto that constrains action supported by a significant majority, which then limits the ability of the Antarctic Treaty states to respond to pressing issues. The region and its "disappointments" were ranked 10th in the main political risks for 2021. However, the rapidly transforming global environment is likely to cause changes in the Antarctic ecosystem, such as shifts in the habitats of commercially valuable marine life, which may generate new geopolitical tensions among the Antarctica treaty states as. More public support and progressive taxation are needed to redress these trends. Attempts to address the impacts of climate change through work plans and conservation measures within CCAMLR have not yet been passed as. Issue #2/2021 - April. Working with Geopolitical Matters in 2021 Today, making informed business decisions is all about staying abreast of Global issues, with definitive, authoritative, reliable information & data. The Antarctic Treaty can continue to provide a framework for governance of the region. However, middle income and particularly low income countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America will see recovery delayed – unless the UN or China provide them with sufficient COVID19 vaccines and governments escalate public support. However, low oil prices may delay investment in alternative energy sources in 2021, even though these will replace fossil fuels in much of the world in the medium-term. Chris’s contribution to the study of Antarctic law and governance was important and remains a significant legacy and influence.